課程大綱

課程資訊

課程名稱

農產價格
Agricultural Prices

開課學期

107-2

授課對象

生物資源暨農學院農業經濟學系

授課教師

劉鋼

課號

AGEC3006

課程識別碼

607 32700

班次

學分

3.0

全/半年

半年

必/選修

必修

上課時間

星期四7,8,9(14:20~17:20)

上課地點

農經二

備註

總人數上限：50人
外系人數限制：10人

Ceiba 課程網頁

http://ceiba.ntu.edu.tw/1072AGEC3006_

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課程概述

The course is based on economics and statistics concepts and applies this knowledge on real data in order to do hands-on analysis of current prices, analyze price fluctuations, and estimate future prices. Students will perform their own analyses throughout the semester in the form of project assignments and a price forecasting competition using primarily R software.

課程目標

The objectives of this course are three fords: First, to provide students with an understanding of the complex array of forces that influence the level and behavior of agricultural product prices. Second, to assist students in bridging the gap between theory and empirical analyses of price behavior. Third, to allow students to analyze historical price data and forecast prices based on price information.

課程要求

Students are expected to thoroughly understand price formation theoretically and are able to participate discussion in classes, to properly build up their own forecasting models for agricultural commodity prices.

預期每週課後學習時數

Office Hours

每週四 13:00~14:00 備註： Mondays 10:30-11:30 or by an appointment

指定閱讀

Tomek, W.G. and H.M. Kaiser (2014), Agricultural Product Prices, Fifth edition. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press. ISBN 978-0-8014-5230-7. ProQuest Ebook Central (eBook) (required!).

何宗武著（2014），《追蹤資料分析–原理與R程式實務》，雙葉書廊有限公司，ISBN 978-986-6018-87-9。

參考書目

 Dalgaard, Peter (2008), Introductory Statistics with R, 2nd ed., Springer
International Publishing Switzerland, e-ISBN: 978-0-387-79054-1 (eBook).
 Heumann, Christian, Michael Schomaker, and Shalabh (2016), Introduction to
Statistics and Data Analysis, Springer International Publishing Switzerland,
ISBN 978-3-319-46162-5 (eBook).
 Verzani, John (2005), Using R for Introductory Statistics, Chapman & Hall,
ISBN 0-203-49989-1 Master e-book ISBN (eBook).
 蔡佳泓著（2015），《基礎統計分析–R程式在社會科學之應用》，雙葉書廊有限公司，ISBN
978-986-5668-10-5。
 鄭中平、許清芳著（2015），《R在行為科學之應用》，雙葉書廊有限公司，ISBN
978-986-5668-23-5。

評量方式
(僅供參考)

No.	項目	百分比	說明
1.	Part III: Empirical Price Analysis in R	40%	worksheet; quality of discussion; oral presentation; precision of the forecasting model
2.	Part II: Price Differences and Variability	35%	worksheet; quality of discussion; written exam
3.	Part I: Principles of Price Determination	25%	worksheet; quality of discussion; written exam

課程進度

週次	日期	單元主題
第1週	02/21	Syllabus; Introduction to Price Analysis
第2週	02/28	和平紀念日(放假日)
第3週	03/07	Part I: Demand analysis (T&K: Chapters 2-3)
第4週	03/14	Part I: Supply Relationships in Agriculture (T&K: Chapter 4)
第5週	03/21	Part I: Price Determination: Theory and Practice (T&K: Chapter 5)
第6週	03/28	R (何宗武, Chapters 1 & 9)
第7週	04/04	Spring Break! No class！
第8週	04/11	Exam 1 (mainly on Part I)
第9週	04/18	R (何宗武, Chapter 9); Part III: Price Variation through Time (T&K, Chapter 9)
第10週		Part II: Spatial Price Relationships (T&K, Chapter 8)
第11週		Part II: General Farm-Non-farm Price Relationships (T&K, Chapter 10)
第12週		Part II: Mechanisms for Discovering Prices (T&K, Chapter 11)
第13週	05/16	Part II: Marketing Margins (T&K, Chapter 6); Forecasting
第14週	05/23	Part II: Price Differences Associated with Quality (T&K, Chapter 7) Forecasting:
第15週	05/30	Forecasting
第16週	06/06	Exam 2 Part III: Applications (T&K, Chapter 16)
第17週	06/13	Oral Presentation